With gains across the country, the PPC could be a ‘potential spoiler’ in the election: Nanos


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TORONTO – Since the start of the federal election, the People’s Party of Canada has seen a steady increase in its support nationwide, with prominent pollster Nick Nanos suggesting it could become a spoiler for other parties.

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According to a report by Nano’s Research for Granthshala News and the Globe and Mail, which was released on Wednesday, PPC is making a mark across the country, with a dramatic boom in British Columbia and Ontario.

During Wednesday’s edition of Granthshala’s Trend Line podcast, Nanos said, “The People’s Party is getting more support than it was at the start of the campaign.” “They aren’t challenging to conquer a whole bunch of rides, but they can be potential spoilers.”


There is one ride in particular, however, where Nanos said the party could stand a chance of winning: PPC leader Maxime Bernier’s beau, Q’s own ride. The former Conservative had held the rural ride since 2006 when he campaigned under the PPC banner, before losing his seat in the 2019 federal election.

“The one seat he probably has the biggest chance of winning would be Maxim Bernier’s seat,” Nanos said. “Plus, his support is spread across the country, but Busse will ride to see if Maxim Bernier will return.”

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To achieve this, Bernier and his party’s 311 candidates are campaigning for a “purple wave” on 20 September to lure disillusioned Tory supporters and others from the PPC.

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According to Nainos’ polling data, the momentum appears to be in favor of the party, which showed that his national support was less than 2 percent when the writ was issued on August 15. Fast-forward to the latest nightly tracking data released Wednesday, and the PPC now has 6.8 percent support nationally.

The growing share of the PPC’s support is enough to attract the attention of journalists, who asked Conservative leader Erin O’Toole if she was concerned about Bernier’s party, which during a recent campaign in the Greater Toronto Area among right-wing voters. were dividing the vote. The Conservative leader avoided the question.

According to Nano and other political pundits, the growing popularity of Bernier and the PPC can be largely attributed to the government-imposed COVID-19 vaccine mandate and their outspoken stance against passports.

Political strategist Shakir Chambers, who helped Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives win the 2018 provincial election in Ontario, said the PPC has tapped into anger about the topic among Conservatives and non-Conservatives.

“He has such a unique place in this election,” Chambers recently told The Canadian Press.

“They are saying that we should talk about these things, no other party is saying that you can even talk about whether it should be mandatory or not.”

Although PPC is gaining support across the country, there are a few areas where the gains have been particularly noticeable.

Nanos Research, in its special report, compared the five-day period at the start of the campaign (August 18 – 22) to a five-day period following the official leaders’ debate, breaking the regional divide in party support across the country (September 10 – 14). ).

Here are the regional findings.

British Columbia

According to Nanos, BC is shaping up to be a tight three-way race between the Conservatives, the NDP and the Liberals, with the PPC registering the biggest increase in support among the parties since the start of the campaign.

Nanos said, “When we talk about the People’s Party and many other parts of the country, I probably feel like I am repeating myself, because we are seeing that trend in many other places as well. “

The Green Party, on the other hand, has not enjoyed a similar trajectory in this election. Nanos said the party has received support of up to 15 percent in BC in the last elections, but this time it has only 8 percent.

“[It’s] There has probably been a slight disappointment compared to some of the ups and downs historically that they have felt in that province,” he said.

Party support for August 18–22 and September 10–14:

  • conservative 35 percent to 30 percent;

  • NDP 30 percent to 26 percent;

  • moderate 27 percent to 28 percent;

  • Green Party 7 percent to 8 percent; And

  • People’s Party of Canada 1 percent to 8 percent


The Prairies remain a stronghold for the Conservatives, according to Nanos, who said the party retained the same support it had at the start of the campaign when you take into account the voting margin.

“Prairie Blue remains a lock for the team,” Nanos said. “I don’t think there’s going to be a big difference in the prairie provinces because the Conservatives still have a commanding lead when it comes to ballot support.”

Party support for August 18–22 and September 10–14:

  • conservative 51 percent to 49 percent;

  • moderate 23 percent to 17 percent;

  • NDP 16 percent to 23 percent;

  • People’s Party of Canada 5 percent to 8 percent; And

  • Green Party 4 percent to 2 percent


Looking at the entire province of Ontario, Nanos said the Liberals have maintained their edge over the Conservatives and have even managed to open a wide gap since the start of the campaign. He also said that according to statistics, the Greater Toronto area remains a liberal stronghold.

“No big surprise, the Liberals still have a pretty strong lead in Fortress GTA. They will probably do very well in GTA,” he said.

Notably, the PPC has made some progress in the province, Nanos said, with an increase of 1 percent to 7 percent since the start of the election.

Party support for August 18–22 and September 10–14:

  • moderate 42 percent to 40 percent;

  • conservative 35 percent to 30 percent;

  • NDP 18 percent to 20 percent;

  • People’s Party of Canada 1 percent to 7 percent; And

  • Green Party 3 percent to 3 percent


Party support for August 18–22 and September 10–14:

  • moderate 44 percent to 47 percent;

  • conservative 34 percent to 27 percent;

  • NDP 18 percent to 18 percent;

  • The People’s Party of Canada 1 percent to 6 percent; And

  • Green Party 3 percent to 1 percent


While support for the liberals looked very strong at the start of the campaign, Nanos pointed out that Blockchain CubeCoin has narrowed that gap and it is now looking like a closer race than before.

“The margin is now only four percentage points, compared to the Liberals’ 10-point advantage at the start of the campaign,” he said.

Otherwise, Nanos said there aren’t many other surprises in the province, with Montreal remaining a liberal stronghold of the island. He also noted that there has not been a dramatic increase in support for the PPC in Quebec as there has been in other provinces.

“So a bit of a factor, but not as dramatic as some other parts of the country,” he said.

Party support for August 18–22 and September 10–14:

  • moderate 35 percent to 32 percent;

  • Block Quebecois 25 percent to 28 percent;

  • NDP 19 percent to 15 percent;

  • Conservative 16 percent to 18 percent

  • Green Party 4 percent to 3 percent; And

  • People’s Party of Canada 1 percent to 4 percent

Atlantic Canada

Like Quebec, there were some surprises in the Atlantic provinces where liberals are maintaining their strong lead.

“For now at least, the Liberals will still have what would be considered a fairly comfortable nine-point lead, which is not as comfortable led by the Prairies as the Conservatives have, but still pretty decent in the Atlantic provinces,” They said.

Nanos said the PPC has also seen a small uptick in support in the region, while the Green Party has seen its popularity decline.

Party support for August 18–22 and September 10–14:

  • moderate 41 percent to 41 percent;

  • conservative 29 percent to 32 percent;

  • NDP 22 percent to 20 percent;

  • Green Party 7 percent to 3 percent; And

  • People’s Party of Canada 2 percent to 5 percent

modus operandi

A national dual-frame (land + cell) random telephone survey is carried out at night by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. The report includes a comparison of two five-day periods of the election campaign, the first wave from 18 to 22 August and the second from 10 to 14 September for voters in the province of British Columbia.

The margin of error for the survey of 221 and 300 respondents is ±6.7 percentage points and ±5.7 percentage points, respectively, 19 times out of 20.

With files from the Canadian Press

Granthshala.ca Sneak Peek at Election Night: For those looking for the map mentioned on the show, here’s the link: https://www.Granthshala.ca/politics/federal-election-2019/results-map

Please note that this version of the map currently shows the results of the 2019 election. You’ll be able to see the map with the numbers updated on September 20th.


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