A United Nations Environment Program analysis suggests that the 15 major fossil fuel-producing countries will produce about 110% more coal, oil and gas in 2030 to limit warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. will be required for, and 45% more which corresponds to 2 degrees.
Researchers call this disconnect between government plans and international climate commitments the “production gap”, which they conclude has remained “largely unchanged” compared to previous assessments since the annual report was first launched in 2019 .
The latest analysis found that the production gap is largest for coal, of which governments plan to produce around 240% more in 2030. They plan to produce 57% more oil and 71% more natural gas than in 2015. Paris Agreement.
Ploy Achkulvisut, the report’s lead author and a scientist at the Stockholm Environment Institute, said that although the limit is dire, governments still have the power to reverse course and close the gap.
“It is the state-owned fossil fuel companies that control 50 to 55% of global coal, oil and gas production, but while they do not currently control production, government policies and subsidies still govern production by private interests. Enables it,” Achkulawisut told Granthshala. “It is governments that can implement systemic economy-wide policies and actions with the public interest in mind.”
“The main message is that governments have a primary role in closing the production gap,” she said.
Achkulvisut and his colleagues analyzed production plans and estimates for Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Germany, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Norway, Russia, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom and the United States.
Although the world’s largest coal producers, China and the US, are reducing their production of fossil fuels, the change will be counteracted by projected increases in coal production in India, Russia and Australia, the report said.
“The point of the Production Gap Report is to show that governments do not see the supply of fossil fuels as contributing to the climate crisis,” Achkulwisut said. “The crux of the problem is that the governments of fossil fuel producing countries are still unwilling to publicly acknowledge that we need to rapidly shut down production in a sustained, managed manner in order to meet the Paris Agreement.”
Still, the production gaps report found that the world’s largest economies have funneled more than $300 billion in new funds for fossil fuel activities since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, which they found to be more efficient than clean energy alternatives. Has invested.
“The modeling results suggest that all three fuels – coal, oil and gas – need to decrease radically by 2020 to remain in line with a path that will allow us to limit long-term warming to 1.5°C. . ,” said Achakulavisut. “Continuing to delay action will only make the problem worse.”
The report comes ahead of UN-brokered international climate talks in Glasgow, Scotland, in early November, where countries will focus on committing to stronger fossil fuel cuts, as well as putting an end date on production. use of coal.
The next few years are crucial for closing the production gap, Achakulavisut said. Only by increasingly moving away from fossil fuels and reducing greenhouse gas emissions can limit world warming to 1.5 degrees.
“We need an even faster, faster decline and potentially more disruptive transition,” she said. “The sooner we take action, the more managed and less disruptive this transition away from fossil fuels can be for all.”
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Credit : www.cnn.com
