It is “highly likely” that a reduction in the number of people working from home over the next few months will lead to a “rapid” increase in Covid hospitalizations, the government’s scientific advisers have warned.
With schools and universities returning, millions of Britons are going back to office this month. Last week, London saw its busiest morning rush since the pandemic hit, according to official figures, with hundreds of thousands visiting.
but Modeling published on Tuesday The suggestion by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies is “potentially” for another major wave of hospitalizations in the coming months.
SPI-MO, Sage’s Sub-Group on Epidemic Modelling, said, “There is a clear consensus that high levels of homework have played a very important role in containing the sustained epidemic escalation in recent months.
“It is highly likely that a significant reduction in housework will result in a rapid increase in hospitalizations over the next few months.”
The SPI-MO said there is “significant uncertainty” around the trajectory of the pandemic, “the scope for increased transmission after the end of the school holidays” and questions that persist during the period of immunity acquired through infection or injection. .
Although UK vaccines have weakened the link between infection and serious illness, leading to hospitalizations, any significant increase in cases would “likely” lead to an increase in admissions, government scientists consultants said.
Senior NHS officials have already warned that hospitalizations are increasing in an “alarming” fashion, adding to the pressure on health services in the UK. Government data shows that the level of Covid bed occupancy is at its highest level since March 10, after daily admissions crossed the 1,000 mark last week.
The SPI-MO said it “remains a matter” that the earlier interventions are brought, the lower the spread, the less the direct COVID-19 burden and the risk of needing more stringent measures.
“If enacted early enough, a relatively mild set of measures could be enough to halt continued growth,” Sage Modellers said. “During periods of sustained epidemic escalation, however, the more stringent measures are introduced, the shorter the period required for measures to reduce a given spread.”
The UK’s deputy chief medical officer, Professor Jonathan Van-Tam, announced a government plan to give booster jabs to more than 30 million Britons, saying the UK was “definitely heading for a rough” winter as a result of COVID-19. Yes, flu cases are increasing. and the spread of other respiratory diseases such as RSV (respiratory syncytial virus).
Credit: www.independent.co.uk /