Ontario seems to have a handle on COVID-19 for some time, with no significant increase in cases, hospitalizations and ICU stays, but the situation will be “delicate” as cold weather approaches Due to which more people will be forced to go inside the house.
The province’s science advisory table in its latest round of estimates concludes released on tuesday.
The table issued a wide range of possible scenarios with “high uncertainty” in projections because it is too early to see the full impact of the return to schools and workplaces and how spending more time indoors will contribute to the spread of the virus.
If transmission rises by 25 per cent, the number of daily cases will exceed 5,000 by November. If things remain the same, with no change in policies or behavior, daily cases will rise to a little over 1,500. A 25 per cent reduction in transmission would result in a drop in cases far below current levels. (see chart above).
Ontario reports 466 new COVID-19 cases And there were 11 more deaths on Tuesday. The rolling seven-day average of new cases has come down to 606 from 710 a week ago.
The science table confirms that the test positivity rate is currently declining.
The science table says that vaccination coverage is increasing slowly, and continued control of case growth will require continued public health measures and high vaccination rates with decreased mobility.
It found, “People without vaccine have a seven times higher risk of symptomatic COVID-19 disease, 25 times higher risk of being in hospital and 60 times more risk of being in ICU than those who are fully vaccinated.” more,” it found.
Ontario hospital and ICU occupancy rates have been stable for several weeks, but estimates range from 200 beds to more than 300 beds by the end of October.
Patients in the ICU are also expected to be younger than in previous waves.
“The risk of contracting COVID-19, hospitalization for COVID-19, and admission to the ICU are many times higher for unvaccinated individuals,” the table said, adding that people with COVID-19 Will have a long-term impact, “will have a significant impact. The health of thousands of Ontarians.”
In a statement, a spokesman for the health minister said the new modeling numbers further confirm that the province’s public health measures are working.
“Ontario continues to report one of the lowest rates of active cases in the country, well below the national average, as we trended toward the best-case scenario predicted in previous modeling,” said Alexandra Hilken. “Implementation of vaccine certifications in high-risk settings will help protect the progress of the province’s hard-fought battle. We are seeing the impact of this policy, with thousands more rolling up their sleeves for the first and second doses every day. “
“In the coming months, we will maintain our cautious approach and continue to make decisions based on the best medical and scientific advice.”