- Data from the government’s dashboard shows the latest increase in infections was in England last Thursday
- Consistent with SAGE models, which predict the crisis will subside next month, thanks to boosters, natural immunity
- Scientists tell MailOnline that promising data suggest controversial models ‘finally correct’
Covid cases in England already appear flat, after modeling by the government’s scientific advisers predicted a third wave would subside next month, even without a Plan B.
Data from the government’s Covid dashboard shows the latest increase in infections was last Thursday, when there were just over 44,000 a day, and has been falling or falling every day since then.
Even when looking at when people actually took their test, rather than when they got their results, it also appears that cases have started decreasing since last week.
While the figures are based on data for only a few days, they are in line with some of the more optimistic estimates from SAGE, the No10 scientific advisory panel.
Modeled by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine for SAGE, cases fell to 5,000 per day during the winter without any additional restrictions from next month.
Scientists said a combination of booster vaccines, increased natural immunity in children and a reduction in classroom mix during the October half-term break would reduce cases.
SAGE had previously been criticized for exaggerating the scale of the country’s outbreak, but Dr Simon Clarke of the University of Reading said it looked like they had ‘a high chance of being right’ this time.
But the microbiologist told MailOnline: ‘Just as people criticized the shortcomings of the pessimistic model, we have to apply the same skepticism to such optimistic people. But the team at LSHTM is very good in its work.
Professor Paul Hunter, an epidemiologist at the University of East Anglia, said he ‘trusted’ the LSHTM model, adding: ‘Over the next few weeks, we should start to see a substantial drop in cases after hospitalizations.’
But not all scientists advising the government agree, as many SAGE people are lobbying publicly for masks, work-from-home and vaccine passports to protect against rising cases in the winter.
Downing St was today forced to defend its decision not to return to Plan B, as leaked government documents show contingency plans could cost the economy £18 billion this winter. The work-from-home and face mask losses were estimated by the Treasury and the Cabinet Office.
A separate paper from the Department of Culture has raised concerns that vaccine passports could be ‘counter-productive’ and lead people to poorly ventilated pubs.
Covid cases in England already appear flat after modeling by the government’s scientific advisers predicts a third wave will shrink from next month without a Plan B. Data from the government’s Covid dashboard shows the latest surge in infections peaked last Thursday, when there was just over 44,000 a day, and has dropped or fallen every day since
While SAGE’s models only look at England, figures from No10’s Covid dashboard show that UK-wide infection numbers are also stable. Nationally, infections peaked at around 52,000 on Thursday, falling every day to just 36,500 yesterday
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine: These charts show the effect of returning to normal levels of social mixing at three months (bottom) and alert for one year – and the impact of transition (left), admission (middle) Is. and death (right). Models show cases decreasing by November in both conditions due to natural immunity, but increasing in spring (below) when vaccine safety is expected to decrease.
While SAGE’s models only look at England, figures from No10’s Covid dashboard show that UK-wide infection numbers are also stable.
Nationally, infections peaked at around 52,000 on Thursday, falling every day to just 36,500 yesterday. But, as in England, the figures are always slightly lower on weekends and Mondays due to recording gaps.
Optimistic trends and forecasts give No10 confidence to defy growing calls to return to Plan B, which will see the introduction of mandatory masks and WFH guidance withdrawal, as well as the Vaccine Passport.
Firm running Wolverhampton testing lab suspended after testing scandal still processing travel PCR tests
The firm at the center of a testing mistake that allowed thousands of Covid-infected patients to roam the streets is still processing private travel PCR swabs, it was revealed today.
Up to 43,000 people, mostly in the south west of England, were wrongly told they were negative for the virus due to ‘technical issues’ at a private laboratory in Wolverhampton operated by Imensa.
The error has been linked to a recent explosion in Covid cases in the area, where a record one in 45 residents are now estimated to have the virus. Operations at the facility – where workers were filmed playing football and wrestling in shifts – were eventually suspended on October 15 following an error.
But it has now emerged that Immensa is continuing to process and benefit PCR results for international travelers who purchase the test through its sister company Dante Labs for up to £68.
Professor Kit Yates, a senior lecturer in mathematical biology at the University of Bath, described the situation as ‘an absolute scam’, saying: ‘How can anyone trust them?’
Immensa – which was awarded around £170 million by the government last spring to analyze PCR samples – has insisted that all swabs, including travel, are being redirected from the wolves’ laboratory. The company also operates a facility in Cambridge.
It comes as leaked documents suggested that implementing the measures could cost the economy up to £18 billion.