Granthshala News Poll: Tight race for Virginia governor


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The poll, released Thursday, was conducted from September 26 to September 29 among Virginia registered voters

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Virginia voters gave Democrat Terry McAuliffe a 48-44 percent advantage over Republican Glenn Youngkin in the gubernatorial race, according to a new Granthshala News poll.

This benchmark poll of the Virginia governor’s race shows it’s still up for grabs. That four percentage-point edge is within the survey’s margin of sampling error and both candidates are well below 50 percent support.


Click here to read full voting results

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Furthermore, while supporters of both McAuliffe and Youngkin have a high degree of vote certainty (each at 79 percent), one in five voters say they can change their mind before casting their vote.

Overall, three quarters are “extremely” (46 percent) or “very” (29 percent) interested in the election. Only among those interested voters, McAuliffe is up by 2 points (49-47 percent).

The poll, released Thursday, was conducted from September 26 to September 29 among Virginia registered voters. The second and last scheduled debate of the campaign took place on 28 September.

McAuliffe is the preferred candidate among black voters (69 points), liberals (+18), women (+10), and parents (+9).

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Youngkin is the choice among independents (+23), white voters (by 13 points) and men (+2).

He is also ahead (+13 points) in the smaller subgroup, which has negative opinions from both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.

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Republicans lead by 10 points among economy voters, while Democrats are ahead 50, who say the pandemic is the most important issue in their vote. The economy is the top issue for Virginia voters (32 percent), followed by the coronavirus pandemic (20 percent), health care (12 percent), taxes (9 percent), and abortion, crime, and education (7 percent each). .

On their personal financial situation, by a 9-point margin, more Virginians report falling behind than they are leading (27 versus 18 percent), with a 54 percent majority holding steady.

Most support the COVID vaccine requirements for teachers (66 percent) and employers with more than 100 employees (60 percent). A significant number, 71 percent, favor mask requirements for teachers and students.

There is no real difference between parents and non-parents on these COVID mandates, although the expectation of mothers is that teachers and students wear masks by 11 points.

McAuliffe supports the vaccine mandate for teachers, while Youngkin opposes the need for the shot.

Democrats are at least twice as much in favor of requiring teachers as Republicans (90 vs. 45 percent), teachers/students to wear masks (95 vs. 45 percent), and vaccines in companies with 100+ workers (88 vs. 34 percent) ) )

Candidates debate Critical Race Theory, Youngkin vows to ban its teaching, and McAuliffe says it is not being taught in Virginia schools. While 27 percent of voters are in favor of teaching CRT in public schools, 39 percent oppose it, and 32 percent haven’t heard enough to say. The largest share of Democrats is in favor (47 percent) compared to the majority of Republicans (65 percent) who oppose it, while opinions are similar between parents and non-parents.

“Republicans are expected to run competitively in Northern Virginia and occupy the governorship in Old Dominion while dominating the mountain and western parts of the state,” says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducted the Granthshala News poll with Democrat Chris Anderson. ”

“Those expectations depend on what issues are at the fore. If voters are thinking about the economy, taxes, and the important race principle, the figures here suggest that Youngkin can pull it off. If they are concerned about the virus and Thinking about health care, McAuliffe Cruises.”

Youngkin, a former business executive, is a newcomer to politics, while McAuliffe served as the state’s governor from 2014-2018.

McAuliffe received a net +7 favorable rating: 48 percent view him favorably versus 41 percent unfavorably. For Youngkin, it’s 44 percent favorable versus 42 percent unfavourable. This gives him NET +2 marks.

The current governor of Virginia, Democrat Ralph Northam, divided views: 45 percent favorable, 46 percent unfavourable.

Trump endorsed Youngkin and Biden backed McAuliffe. Will those support help?

There is a 49-49 percent split among voters in Biden’s favor, while Trump is underwater by 16 points (41 percent favorable versus 57 percent unfavourable). In addition, more Democrats view Biden favorably (87 percent) than Trump (80 percent) than Republicans.

At the same time, while President Biden won Virginia by 10 points in 2020, voters now approve of the work he’s doing with only 1 point: 50 approves versus 49 disapproves.

“Sometimes as an off-year election in a purple state, the Virginia governor is often seen as an early indicator of where voters go after the president,” says Anderson. “And these election results suggest that in some places Republicans may be more competitive when Donald Trump is not on the ballot.”

This Granthshala News poll, conducted September 26-29, 2021 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company (R), includes interviews with 901 Virginia registered voters who were randomly selected from a statewide voter file , who spoke with the interviewers live. Landline and cellphone. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points for the total sample.

Granthshala News’ Victoria Ballara contributed to this report.

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