Goldman cuts forecast for US economic growth in 2021 and 2022

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The firm had earlier expected 5.7 percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2021 and 4.4% in 2022

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Goldman Sachs has lowered its US economic growth target to 5.6% for 2021 and 4% for 2022, citing an expected decline in fiscal support by the end of next year and a more delayed recovery in consumer spending than previously thought. .

The firm previously expected 5.7% gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2021 and 4.4% in 2022, according to research released Sunday by authors including its chief economist Jan Hetzius.

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He pointed to a “long-lasting virus drag on virus-sensitive consumer services” as well as an expectation that semiconductor supply likely won’t improve until the first half of 2022, delaying inventory restocking until next year.

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And on top of the near-term virus drag, they expect spending on certain services and non-durables to remain well below pre-pandemic trends, especially “if remote work changes.” As a result some workers spend less.”

On a quarterly basis, Goldman cut its fourth quarter 2021 and first quarter 2022 GDP estimates from 5% to 4.5% and its second quarter 2022 forecast from 4.5% to 4%, while the third quarter lowered the estimate to 3%. From 3.5%.

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However, it raised the forecast for the fourth quarter of 2022 to 1.75% from 1.5%.


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