- According to a United Nations report, 110% more fossil fuels will be produced than the 1.5˚C limit
- Based on industry estimates, 240% more coal and 70% more natural gas will be extracted by 2030 than is allowed by agreements.
- This ‘output gap’ between climate targets and extraction plans will reach at least 2040. will widen to
- The bigger the gap, the more stringent climate change protocols become, warns UNEP
- Since 2020, 20 major economies have invested $300 billion in new fossil fuel projects, far more than clean energy
The world needs to cut its production of coal, oil and gas by more than half in the coming decade to have a chance to meet the strict climate standards set by the 2015 Paris Agreement, according to United Nations findings.
Based on industry estimates, by 2030 there will be 240 percent more coal, about 60 percent more oil and 70 percent more natural gas than is allowed by agreements.
Overall, 110 percent more fossil fuels would be produced compared to the 1.5˚ Celsius (2.7˚ Fahrenheit) increase limit, according to which According to a report by the United Nations Environment Program released on Wednesday
The study found that even on the more modest target of a 2 °C (3.6 °F) increase, industrialized countries are expected to go over the limit by 45 percent.
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Even as industrialized nations boost efforts to combat climate change, their plans for fossil fuel extraction have more than doubled to meet the 1.5˚ Celsius (2.7˚ Fahrenheit) increase allowed by the Paris climate agreement. more is allowed.
‘Governments continue to plan and support levels of fossil fuel production that we can safely burn,’ said Ploy Achkulvisut, a climate scientist at the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) who produced the report. new scientist.
Achkulawisut said the more lenient goal of limiting global warming by 2100 to an increase of 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit compared to before the Industrial Revolution was unrealistic.
Climate experts say the world should stop adding to the total amount of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere by 2050, and ensure that the burning of fossil fuels, among other measures, can be reduced as quickly as possible. Is.
The report comes a week before the UN climate summit begins in Glasgow on 31 October.
The researchers found that most major oil and gas producers – and even some major coal producers – were planning to increase production by 2030 or beyond
The difference between global fossil fuel production estimated by governments’ plans and conforming to the guidelines of the Paris Agreement (both 1.5 °C- and 2 °C-warming routes) is expressed in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions when extracted. fuel is burnt
The researchers found that most major oil and gas producing countries – and even some coal countries – were planning to increase production by 2030 or even beyond.
“Despite increased climate ambitions and net-zero commitments, governments still plan to more than double the amount of fossil fuels produced in 2030, which would be consistent with limiting global warming,” SEI said in a statement. ”
The report also concluded that since the start of 2020, G-20 countries have invested $300 billion in new fossil fuel projects, far more than in clean energy. (As of 2017, $280 billion was spent worldwide on renewable energy International Institute for Sustainable Development, compared to ‘trillions’ on fossil fuels.)
The report finds that the disparity between climate targets and fossil fuel extraction plans, known as the ‘production gap’, will widen until at least 2040.
According to a report by the Stockholm Environment Institute, most industrialized nations are planning to increase oil and gas production, and many are continuing or increasing coal extraction.
UNEP said the bigger the gap, the more stringent climate change protocols would have to be to meet the Paris emissions target.
“There is still time to limit long-term warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, but this window of opportunity is rapidly closing,” agency director Inger Andersen told the Associated Press.
The report examined 15 major fossil fuel producing countries, including China, Brazil, the US and the UK, which together make up three-quarters of the industry.
U.S. government projections show that coal production is expected to drop by 30 percent overall from 2019 to 2030.
The top 20 industrial governments (G-20) are collectively forecasting an increase in oil and gas production, and only a marginal decrease in coal production through 2040. This would meet the goals of maintaining climate change standards by about 110 percent, according to a new United Nations report.
But over the same time frame oil and gas production will increase by 17 percent and 12 percent, respectively.
Most of those fossil fuels will be exported, meaning that emissions from their burning will not show up in a US analysis, although they will obviously add up to the global total.
Andrea Meza, Costa Rica’s environment minister, said: “We must cut with both hands the scissors while simultaneously addressing the demand and supply of fossil fuels.”
To fuel that effort, Costa Rica and Denmark are planning to launch a new group at the Glasgow summit, The Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance.
Paris Agreement: A global agreement to limit temperature through carbon emission reduction targets
The Paris Agreement, first signed in 2015, is an international agreement to control and limit climate change.
It hopes to step up efforts to keep the increase in global mean temperature below 2 °C (3.6 °F) and limit temperature rise to 1.5 °C (2.7 °F).
It looks like the more ambitious goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) may be more important than ever, according to previous research, which claims that 25 percent of the world’s droughts may see a significant increase. can…