- Former FDA commissioner Dr Scott Gottlieb said Thursday that the delta-fueled fourth wave could be the final surge of the COVID-19 pandemic
- Provided no new variants emerge, Gottlieb predicted that COVID would become an endemic disease, meaning it is always present but transmitted at low rates.
- Gottlieb envisions COVID-19 to be transmitted at higher rates in winter and lower rates in summer, similar to the seasonal flu
- There has been a decline in cases with 135,611 new infections recorded on Wednesday and a seven-day rolling average of 131,076, down 14% from four weeks ago.
- A new model found that COVID-19 cases are projected to drop from 141,897 per day currently to 9,054 per day and 1,651 deaths per day with 59 fatalities per day.
According to the former head of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), the fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic driven by the Delta variant could be the last surge the US has seen.
in an appearance on CNN On Thursday, Dr Scott Gottlieb said that – provided no new versions emerge – COVID is on track to become an endemic disease.
This means that the virus will always be present in the population but is circulating at low rates, similar to the seasonal flu.
‘I think this delta wave may be the last major wave of transition, assuming nothing unexpected happens, [such as] a type that pierces the immunity conferred by prior infection [and] By vaccination,’ Gottlieb said.
‘So, assuming that doesn’t happen, and I think it’s unlikely, this will be the last major wave of infection, and it becomes a more permanent, endemic risk.’
His remarks come just a day after a new model predicted that Covid cases and deaths would drop to levels not seen since the end of March 2020, when the pandemic first hit the U.S.
Scott Gottlieb, former FDA commissioner, said Thursday on CNN (above) that the delta-fueled fourth wave could be the final surge of the COVID-19 pandemic
There has been a decline in cases with 135,611 new infections recorded on Wednesday and a seven-day rolling average of 131,076, down 14% from four weeks ago.
Over the past several weeks, the rate of growth of new coronavirus cases was starting to slow significantly before declining last week.
On Wednesday, the US reported 135,611 new cases of COVID-19 with a seven-day rolling average of 131,076, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.
That figure is a 14 percent decrease from the rolling average of 152,480 reported four weeks ago.
DailyMail.com’s analysis of the data shows that forty US states and the District of Columbia have seen a decline in Covid infections in the past week or only six states have seen an increase.
This includes states such as former virus hotspot Florida, which is reporting half the number of cases in August.
Provided no new variants emerge, Gottlieb predicted that COVID would become an endemic disease, meaning it is always present but transmitted at low rates, not a disease that results in hospitalization. Image: Members of a COVID Critical Care Unit treat a COVID-19 positive patient inside the ICU at Sarasota Memorial Hospital in Sarasota, Florida on September 22
The number of hospitalizations also declined, with 86,811 patients seeking care, down 14 per cent from 101,634 two weeks ago. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.
Gottlieb said it’s promising that at least 76.5 percent of American adults have received at least one vaccine dose, but he would like to see that number increase.
“We really need to get to about 80 percent to 85 percent of the population to have enough vaccinations that you start to see a drop in the rate of cases and a slowing of the spread,” he told CNN.
He said he envisions COVID-19 to be transmitted at higher rates in winter and lower rates in summer, similar to the seasonal flu.
‘It becomes a more permanent, endemic risk,’ Gottlieb told CNN.
‘So, you have the coronavirus keep spreading, but not the same rate that we’re seeing now, and it settles into more of a seasonal pattern, and basically becomes another flu, [but] Perhaps more pathogenic than the flu.’
Gottlieb’s projections come as a new model predicts cases and deaths will drop to levels not seen in more than a year until next spring.
Best case scenario for cases: A new model predicts that, in a best-case scenario, weekly COVID-19 cases will drop from currently 993,279 or 141,897 per day to 63,383 weekly cases or 9,054 per day by March 2022 (up) .
Best case scenario for deaths: Deaths could be estimated to decrease from 11,563 current weekly deaths, or 1,651 per day to 415 weekly deaths, or about 59 per day (up).
analysis done by COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, which advises the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), looked at nine different models from universities across the US.
The researchers came up with four different scenarios, depending on whether children between the ages of five and 11 are authorized to be vaccinated and whether a new variant begins to spread.
The model does not advocate for or against childhood vaccinations, but only suggests that they will be introduced by the fall of 2021.
According to the model, this will result in a reduction in weekly COVID-19 cases from the current 993,279, or 141,897 per day to 63,383 weekly cases, or 9,054 per day by March 2022.
Deaths will also fall from 11,563 weekly deaths, or 1,651 per day, to 415 weekly deaths, or about 59 per day.
Justin Lesler, a professor of epidemiology at the University of North Carolina who is part of the hub, “none of us are going to be really cautious about too much optimism, given what has happened to Delta.” Coordination team told NPR.
‘But I think there is a trajectory towards improvement in most parts of the country.’
In the worst case, in which…