- Study looks at how different age groups will be affected by climate disasters
- Children will see seven times more heatwaves than their grandparents in 2021
- Will go through twice the forest fires and three times the drought
- Children in Africa can endure 50 times more heat than in Europe
A new study warns that babies born in 2021 will survive an average of seven times as many heatwaves, twice as many wildfires and nearly three times as many droughts.
It looked at how people of different age groups across the world will be affected by climate change-induced disasters throughout their lifetime.
The researchers found that youth and children would be disproportionately worse off, especially in developing countries.
In sub-Saharan Africa, 172 million children may experience a 50-fold greater heatwave and a six-fold increase in extreme events in their lifetime, compared to 53 million children of the same age group in Europe and Central Asia.
A new study claims that children born in 2021 will live through an average of seven times more heatwaves and twice as many wildfires as their grandparents. Embers flying from a tree during a wildfire in California’s Eldorado National Forest earlier this month
Flooded streets and homes are shown in the Spring Meadow subdivision in Laplace, Louisiana, when the storm moved through Ida. photo of 30 august
Top 10 Disasters by Death and Economic Loss (1970-2019)
1. Ethiopia drought (1983) – 300,000
2. Bangladesh Hurricane (Bhola, 1970) – 300,000
3. Sudan Drought (1983) – 150,000
4. Bangladesh Hurricane (Gorky, 1991) – 138,866
5. Myanmar Hurricane (Nargis, 2008) – 138,366
6. Ethiopia drought (1973) – 100,000
7. Mozambique Drought (1981) – 100,000
8. Russia’s extreme temperature (2010) – 55,736
9. Venezuela floods (1999) – 30,000
10. Bangladesh Floods (1974) – 28,700
Economic loss (in billion US dollars)
1. Hurricane Katrina (US, 2005) – 163.61
2. Hurricane Harvey (USA, 2017) – 96.94
3. Hurricane Maria (USA, 2017) – 69.39
4. Hurricane Irma (USA, 2017) – 58.16
5. Hurricane Sandy (USA, 2012) – 54.47
6. Hurricane Andrew (USA, 1991) – 48.27
7. China Flood (1998) – 47.02
8. Thailand (2011) – 45.46
9. Hurricane Ike (USA, 2008) – 35.63
10. North Korea Floods (1995) – 25.17
The study claimed that worldwide, newborns survive on average 2.6 times more droughts, 2.8 times more river floods, almost three times more crop failures and twice as many wildfires than those born 60 years ago. Will stay
“Today people under the age of 40 will live an unprecedented life even under the harshest climate change mitigation scenarios,” said climate scientist Wim Thierry from Vrije Universitt Brussels in Belgium, who led the study.
‘Our results highlight a serious threat to the safety of younger generations and call for drastic reductions in emissions to safeguard their future.’
Co-author Dr Joeri Roselj, from Imperial College London, said: ‘With this study we highlight the fundamental injustices of climate change across generations, as well as the responsibilities of today’s adults and elders in power.
‘The consequences of having children endure unprecedented sequences of climate extremes over the course of their lives can now be attributed to the passivity of today’s adults.
‘It also shows how much can be achieved with ambitious emissions reductions.’
The research is the first to model extreme events and future climate scenarios and to apply the estimates across demographic groups to measure how different age groups experience climate disasters.
Experts quantified lifetime exposure to drought, heatwaves, crop failure, river flooding, tropical cyclones and wildfires.
They measured for generations born between 1960 and 2020, in every country in the world, and for every global warming scenario between today’s 1.8 °F (1 °C) and 6.3 °F (3.5 °C) pre-industrial temperatures. calculated it.
The results show that in the face of 5.4°F (3°C) global warming, in 2020 a six-year-old would experience multiple wildfires and tropical cyclones, three times more river floods, four times more crop failures, five times more Will happen. Many times more drought, and 36 times more heatwave.
Under a 6.3°F (3.5°C) warming scenario, babies born in 2020 will experience 44 times more heatwaves.
The researchers said that even after 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius) of warming, the lifetime risk for heatwaves, crop failure, drought and floods for those born after 1980 exceeded pre-industrial climate conditions. , indicating that some changes are already closed.
To make matters worse, Thierry said it’s likely that people would be affected even more by extreme events than the study estimated, because experts focused only on their frequency, rather than how long they lasted. and their intensity.
Several previous studies have shown that climate change is not only increasing the likelihood of wildfires, droughts and heatwaves, but also increasing their severity.
“We cannot account for the fact that a bad heat wave could double in the future,” said Thierry, who led the research.
A UN report published in August said that if temperatures continue to rise, there could be catastrophic effects on Earth, including a dramatic loss of marine life, an ice-free Arctic and more regular ‘extreme’ weather. Is.
Along with an increase in wildfires, much of the US has experienced historic droughts this year, which have swept rivers, lakes and reservoirs into nearly bone-dry basins. Lake Powell, America’s second largest reservoir, reached its lowest level in June
The study looked at disasters only in isolation, rather than how they might be magnified if they happened alongside each other.
Thierry said, ‘There is a tendency for these things to happen at the same time. ‘Think of heat waves and droughts or river floods and tropical cyclones.’
However, he said that if countries reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, more than 190…