- A new CDC ensemble forecast projects that COVID-19 deaths in the US will decline for the first time since June 23
- The forecast predicts the number of weekly deaths will drop to 5,300 by the week ending October 23, down from the current weekly total of 14,000.
- Average deaths have risen 56% from 1,327 to 2,080 over the past month, but growth has slowed from 160% in the four-week period two weeks ago.
- Last week, another model also projected deaths to be 59 fatalities per day by March 2022.
- It comes as data from Johns Hopkins shows cases have dropped 26% to 117,223 from an average of 160,157 reported a month ago.
A new forecast from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) predicts that COVID-19 deaths will decline next month for the first time since June.
published on Wednesday, ‘Ensemble’ forecast Combines 37 independent forecasts of coronavirus fatalities in one projection over the next four weeks.
The CDC model predicts that weekly Covid deaths will drop to 5,300 for the week ending October 23.
This is a 62 percent drop from the 14,000 weekly total now being recorded and is a promising sign that the fourth wave is coming to an end as the US draws closer to eclipsing 700,000 deaths.
It is also the first time since June 23 that forecasts have predicted a decrease rather than an increase in weekly deaths.
Modelers have seen coronavirus cases in the US drop by up to 26 percent over the past month – and expect the same to happen over the next few weeks.
A new CDC Ensemble forecast predicts that weekly deaths will drop to 5,300 by the week ending October 23, down from the current weekly total of 14,000.
This is the first time since June 23 that instead of an increase, the forecast has projected a decrease in deaths. Pictured: Gerard J. in Queens, New York in April 2020. Coffins are seen full of COVID-19 dead bodies at the Neufeld funeral home.
On Wednesday, the US recorded 2,531 virus-related deaths and a seven-day rolling average of 2,080.
This is an increase of 56 per cent from the 1,327 average deaths recorded a month ago.
The current death toll of 695,000 exceeds the number of Americans killed in World War I, World War II and the Vietnam War – and exceeds the annual cancer toll.
This figure is more than the death toll in the US from Alzheimer’s disease, diabetes, flu, pneumonia and stroke combined.
When the death toll reaches 700,000, it means that more people will have died of COVID-19 in the US than the number of people living in Nashville or Washington, DC.
The US has the highest death toll in the world, while the country accounts for less than five percent of the global population.
However, the rate of growth of new deaths has slowed over the past few weeks.
There was a 160 percent increase in average deaths over the four-week period two weeks ago.
Experts say the death rate is a lagging indicator and often cases and hospitalizations don’t start to decline until three or four weeks later, which means deaths are expected to decline soon as well.
Also, not every state reports Covid deaths every day, so it is likely that this figure includes deaths that were not reported in the first week.
Average deaths have risen 56% from 1,327 to 2,080 over the past month, but growth has slowed from 160% in the four-week period two weeks ago.
It comes as data from Johns Hopkins shows cases have dropped 26% to 117,223 from an average of 160,157 reported a month ago.
The CDC’s model isn’t the only one that predicted deaths would decline.
Another analysis, done by COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, which advises the CDC, was published last week and looked at different scenarios regarding the trajectory of the pandemic.
The researchers came up with four different scenarios, depending on whether children between the ages of five and 11 are authorized to be vaccinated and whether a new variant begins to spread.
The model does not advocate for or against childhood vaccinations, but only suggests that they will be introduced by the fall of 2021.
Best case scenario for deaths: Deaths could be estimated to decrease from 11,563 current weekly deaths, or 1,651 per day to 415 weekly deaths, or about 59 per day (up).
Worst-case scenario for cases: Another scenario, which predicts the emergence of a new infectious COVID variant, would drop to 467,507 weekly cases, or 66,786 daily infections (up).
According to the model, this would result in a reduction of weekly COVID-19 deaths to 415 weekly deaths, or about 59 per day.
These are figures not seen since late March 2020, when states first began to close and enforce stay-at-home orders.
In the worst-case scenario, in which children are not approved for vaccination and a newer version that is 1.5 times more likely to be transmitted begins to circulate, cases and deaths will still decline – but not by as much.
The model predicts that weekly cases will drop from this scenario to 467,507, or 66,786 daily infections, and 4,922 weekly deaths, or 703 daily deaths by next spring.
These numbers are similar to levels seen during the summer of 2020, during the second wave of the pandemic and after the deadly third wave in April 2021.