It is widely known that politically, Alberta is a Conservative province, and a seat with many guaranteed seats for Federalist Conservatives at election time.
However, experts say that while not necessarily the entire province is a slam dunk for Erin O’Toole and her team, fringe parties are gaining popularity along with other front-runner parties.
According to Mount Royal University political scientist Duane Bratt, nearly every ride in Alberta is “going to be won by conservatives with a one-sided margin.”
“It’s the demographics that are different in those rides (that are likely to flip).”
“If you see that liberals – progressives – do well, they are in urban centers, but there are specific types of urban centers: either downtown courses – Edmonton Center, Calgary Center – or university campuses like (Calgary) Confederation, where The University of Calgary, (Edmonton) Strathcona is where the University of Alberta is located, or (Edmonton) large visible minority communities such as Mill Woods, Griezback, (Calgary) Skyview.
MRU associate professor of policy studies Lori Williams said issues such as affordable childcare and a robust environmental plan could be deal breakers for the parties leading the game among voters.
Political strategist Zayn Velji said that while other rides in Alberta are unlikely to turn over, it doesn’t mean they will vote for O’Toole’s Conservatives.
“Erin O’Toole … running a very centrist, almost PC-style campaign. Too much wandering to Quebec, getting too much in the soup with other leaders about some of the more progressive issues, “They said.
“He’s going to pay a price for it in Alberta and that price is going to come down, maybe not in the seats, but certainly the percentage.”
Analysts also believe that as voters cast their ballots in the federal election, the state of the province’s politics will be a big factor in their decisions.
“You can see that whatever happens on Monday is a litmus test on Jason Kenny and a proxy war on Jason Kenny, because I think he’s on the ballot,” Welji said.
All three political experts said it was noteworthy that front-runner federal leaders spent little time in Alberta during the campaign, indicating that the province is “flyover country” and not a priority in the battle for seats.
“They haven’t spent a lot of time here because there aren’t a lot of votes,” Williams said, adding that all party leaders can get hurt when it comes to gaining ground.
“Particularly likely is the People’s Party of Canada—which has about 13 percent of the vote in Alberta—to take votes away from conservatives and in some riding that can make the difference between victory or defeat by conservatives.” .
Bratt agreed that fringe parties such as the PPC and the Maverick Party could make some profit percentage wise in Alberta in this election, but said it was unlikely that those votes would make-it-or-break for the Conservative Party of Canada. -It will be.
“Even though the Mavericks worked with the People’s Party, with some independent candidates, they still weren’t going to win. What they were going to do was get the support (of a Conservative candidate) from 80 per cent, leaving it to 55 per cent.
Here are Alberta rides to watch as the votes begin Monday night:
Williams said that while Liberal candidate Sabrina Grover is not as famous as the current Greg McLean at the Calgary Center, recent news that the campaign trail along with her was subject to threats and attacks has raised her profile.
“And I think she is campaigning on the ground quite effectively. Certainly in interviews, she has shown herself to be very, very knowledgeable and capable, not only on the issues she has expertise in, but the Liberal Party. What does it mean, what is (Justin Trudeau’s) platform, what are the benefits,” Williams said.
“He is able to defend it against criticism quite effectively.”
Political watchers are also keeping their eye on the Calgary Confederation, with Liberal candidate Murray Sigler running with a strong chance of victory.
“Murray Siegler, I think is incredibly high profile, really famous,” Williams said.
“He seems to be the best combination of Liberals and Conservatives, running for the Liberals against a candidate who did the OK in the last election.”
Calgary Councilor George Chahal is the frontrunner in the campaign for sitting Calgary Skyview, and if he wins his seat, all three experts believe he is likely to be appointed to a cabinet position.
With a strong track record of representing his constituents at the municipal level, Chahal comes from a strong political family background, and watchers say he has executed a strong campaign that calls Calgary Skyview “to see what it is” That’s how good the Liberals’ night must have been.”
“Since George Chahal is basically a current councilor and has extensive experience representing at least part of that constituency, and campaigning quite hard in that ride, I think he has a very strong Contenders are considered,” Williams said.
According to Velji, the Edmonton Center is almost guaranteed to turn around, but the big question…